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U. Catolica vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 00:30

U. Catolica

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Cobresal

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.9%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.0%1-13.4%1-21.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.5%2-16.2%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-17.6%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-016.1%4+-118.3%4+-210.4%4+-34.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 76.3% 1.31 -10.8%

Draw 16.6% 19.6% 5.10 -9.2%

Away win 15.3% 13.2% 7.60 +9.8%

Over 2.5 74.4% 67.6% 1.48 +10.1%

Over 3.5 54.1% 45.5% 2.20 +19.0%

BTTS 64.3% 57.8% 1.73 +11.2%

Home O1.5 78.3% 74.1% 1.35 +5.7%

Away O1.5 35.4% 25.0% 4.00 +41.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob64.3%

H 68% / xG 3.7-1.1 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 4–1 7.0%

#3 3–0 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.2%

#5 4–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica3.7

Cobresal1.1

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.75

COBRESAL · PPG 0.22

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.54 for Home, form 1.75 vs 0.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -10.8%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -9.2%

Cobresal (A) 15.3%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face Cobresal in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Cobresal 15%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for U. Catolica and 1.1 for Cobresal (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.22 for Cobresal. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +41.6%. This match finished 2-0.

U. Catolica vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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