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A. Italiano vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 18 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 00:00

A. Italiano

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nublense

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.7%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.6%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 43.9% 2.28 +7.6%

Draw 25.6% 30.8% 3.25 -10.1%

Away win 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Over 2.5 52.2% 47.6% 2.10 +9.6%

Over 3.5 30.1% 26.7% 3.75 +12.9%

BTTS 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Home O1.5 45.1% 42.0% 2.38 +7.3%

Away O1.5 32.1% 35.7% 2.80 -10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 47% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Italiano1.4

Nublense1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

A. ITALIANO · PPG 1.56

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.71

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

A. Italiano (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +7.6%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.1%

Nublense (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Italiano face Nublense in Chile - Primera División on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Italiano a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Nublense 27%, so A. Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for A. Italiano and 1.0 for Nublense (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Italiano are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.71 for Nublense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 2-2.

A. Italiano vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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