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Union La Calera vs Colo Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:30

Union La Calera

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Colo Colo

PPG 2.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+21.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-19.0%0-28.1%0-34.9%0-4+3.3%1 1-05.9%1-110.7%1-29.7%1-35.8%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.6%2-16.4%2-25.8%2-33.5%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.4%3-12.6%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 24.4% 4.10 +10.1%

Draw 22.8% 28.6% 3.50 -12.1%

Away win 48.7% 56.2% 1.78 -13.3%

Over 2.5 63.1% 51.8% 1.93 +21.8%

Over 3.5 39.5% 29.9% 3.35 +32.3%

BTTS 61.8% 55.6% 1.80 +11.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 29.0% 3.45 +14.9%

Away O1.5 48.2% 52.6% 1.90 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.8%

A 49% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2✓ 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union La Calera1.2

Colo Colo1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION LA CALERA · PPG 1.33

COLO COLO · PPG 2.62

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.61 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Union La Calera (H) 28.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +10.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.1%

Colo Colo (A) 48.7%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union La Calera face Colo Colo in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union La Calera a 28% chance, the draw 23% and Colo Colo 49%, so Colo Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Union La Calera and 1.8 for Colo Colo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union La Calera are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.62 for Colo Colo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Union La Calera vs Colo Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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