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Deportes Limache vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:00

Deportes Limache

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nublense

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+20.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.8%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.1%1-19.8%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.7%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 49.0% 2.04 +10.0%

Draw 22.4% 29.4% 3.40 -14.3%

Away win 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -13.8%

Over 2.5 63.6% 52.6% 1.90 +20.8%

Over 3.5 39.9% 31.3% 3.20 +27.7%

BTTS 60.2% 59.9% 1.67 +0.5%

Home O1.5 54.1% 48.8% 2.05 +10.9%

Away O1.5 36.5% 35.7% 2.80 +2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.2%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Limache2.0

Nublense1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES LIMACHE · PPG 2.14

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Limache (H) 53.9%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV +10.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.3%

Nublense (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Limache face Nublense in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Limache a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Nublense 24%, so Deportes Limache are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Deportes Limache and 1.1 for Nublense (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Limache are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.71 for Nublense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.7%.

Deportes Limache vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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