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Völsungur vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:00

Völsungur

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

HK Kopavogur

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.8%0-23.5%0-32.8%0-4+3.1%1 1-02.3%1-15.6%1-27.0%1-35.7%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.3%2-15.7%2-27.0%2-35.7%2-4+6.4%3 3-01.5%3-13.8%3-24.7%3-33.9%3-4+4.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-13.0%4+-23.7%4+-33.1%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 21.7% 4.60 +61.5%

Draw 21.5% 22.7% 4.40 -3.2%

Away win 43.4% 65.4% 1.53 -33.6%

Over 2.5 73.0% 78.1% 1.28 -6.6%

Over 3.5 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

BTTS 69.6% 75.2% 1.33 -7.4%

Home O1.5 55.4% 45.5% 2.20 +21.9%

Away O1.5 65.0% 76.9% 1.30 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob69.6%

A 43% / xG 2.0-2.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 1–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 2–3 5.7%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Völsungur2.0

HK Kopavogur2.5

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VÖLSUNGUR · PPG 1.00

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 0.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Völsungur (H) 35.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +61.5%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -3.2%

HK Kopavogur (A) 43.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Völsungur face HK Kopavogur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Völsungur a 35% chance, the draw 22% and HK Kopavogur 43%, so HK Kopavogur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Völsungur and 2.5 for HK Kopavogur (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Völsungur are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for HK Kopavogur. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Völsungur vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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