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Grotta vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Grotta

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Throttur Reykjavik

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.8%0-24.9%0-33.4%0-4+2.8%1 1-03.9%1-18.1%1-28.4%1-35.7%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-27.2%2-34.9%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.9%3-14.0%3-24.1%3-32.8%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.5%4+-22.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 26.3% 3.80 +35.7%

Draw 22.0% 24.4% 4.10 -5.9%

Away win 42.3% 58.8% 1.70 -28.1%

Over 2.5 67.2% 73.5% 1.36 -8.6%

Over 3.5 44.0% 51.8% 1.93 -15.1%

BTTS 64.3% 73.5% 1.36 -12.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Away O1.5 54.7% 69.4% 1.44 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob64.3%

A 42% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.1%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grotta1.7

Throttur Reykjavik2.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GROTTA · PPG 1.29

THROTTUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grotta (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +35.7%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.9%

Throttur Reykjavik (A) 42.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grotta face Throttur Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grotta a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Throttur Reykjavik 42%, so Throttur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Grotta and 2.1 for Throttur Reykjavik (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grotta are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.86 for Throttur Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Grotta vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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