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IR Reykjavik vs Ægir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 19:15

IR Reykjavik

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ægir

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.3%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.3%1-14.4%1-22.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.4%2-17.2%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.9%3-17.8%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-114.5%4+-29.6%4+-34.3%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% 64.5% 1.55 +3.2%

Draw 16.6% 22.7% 4.40 -16.2%

Away win 16.8% 23.1% 4.33 -16.4%

Over 2.5 73.0% 76.9% 1.30 -5.1%

Over 3.5 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

BTTS 64.3% 74.1% 1.35 -13.2%

Home O1.5 78.3% 75.2% 1.33 +4.1%

Away O1.5 43.7% 45.5% 2.20 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.3%

H 67% / xG 3.3-1.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 7.2%

#3 4–1 6.4%

#4 3–0 5.9%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IR Reykjavik3.3

Ægir1.3

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.50

ÆGIR · PPG 0.62

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.94 for Home, form 1.50 vs 0.62 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

IR Reykjavik (H) 66.6%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +3.2%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -16.2%

Ægir (A) 16.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

IR Reykjavik face Ægir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IR Reykjavik a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Ægir 17%, so IR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for IR Reykjavik and 1.3 for Ægir (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IR Reykjavik are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.62 for Ægir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.5%.

IR Reykjavik vs Ægir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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