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Njardvik vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Njardvik

PPG 2.38 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vestri

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.3%1-18.9%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-17.3%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.8%4+-23.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 66.7% 1.50 -13.3%

Draw 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -5.3%

Away win 20.5% 19.6% 5.10 +2.7%

Over 2.5 63.6% 67.6% 1.48 -5.9%

Over 3.5 41.0% 46.5% 2.15 -11.8%

BTTS 58.1% 65.4% 1.53 -11.1%

Home O1.5 62.4% 70.4% 1.42 -11.4%

Away O1.5 27.7% 35.1% 2.85 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.1%

H 58% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.3%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Njardvik2.2

Vestri1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NJARDVIK · PPG 2.38

VESTRI · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Njardvik (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.3%

Vestri (A) 20.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Njardvik face Vestri in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Njardvik a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Vestri 21%, so Njardvik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Njardvik and 1.0 for Vestri (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Njardvik are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Vestri. This match finished 3-1.

Njardvik vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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