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Afturelding vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 19:15

Afturelding

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grindavik

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.2%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.1%1-16.3%1-23.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.5%2-18.8%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-18.2%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-111.3%4+-25.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% 66.7% 1.50 -0.1%

Draw 16.6% 22.2% 4.50 -15.2%

Away win 16.8% 20.8% 4.80 -11.6%

Over 2.5 67.4% 75.2% 1.33 -10.4%

Over 3.5 47.3% 54.1% 1.85 -12.5%

BTTS 61.8% 70.4% 1.42 -12.2%

Home O1.5 66.0% 75.2% 1.33 -12.2%

Away O1.5 32.1% 40.8% 2.45 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.8%

H 67% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 2–0 8.5%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afturelding2.8

Grindavik1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AFTURELDING · PPG 2.29

GRINDAVIK · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.76 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Afturelding (H) 66.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -0.1%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -15.2%

Grindavik (A) 16.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Afturelding face Grindavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afturelding a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Grindavik 17%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Afturelding and 1.0 for Grindavik (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afturelding are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.88 for Grindavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.9%.

Afturelding vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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