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Vestri vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 16 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 14:00

Vestri

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grotta

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.9%0-22.0%0-31.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-02.4%1-14.9%1-25.2%1-33.6%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.1%2-16.4%2-26.8%2-34.7%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.7%3-15.6%3-25.9%3-34.1%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-16.9%4+-27.2%4+-35.0%4+-4+4.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 50.0% 2.00 -2.4%

Draw 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Away win 29.5% 35.7% 2.80 -10.4%

Over 2.5 72.7% 76.9% 1.30 -5.5%

Over 3.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

BTTS 70.3% 78.1% 1.28 -10.0%

Home O1.5 64.0% 66.7% 1.50 -4.0%

Away O1.5 54.2% 56.5% 1.77 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob70.3%

H 49% / xG 2.6-2.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.8%

#2 2–1 6.4%

#3 3–2 5.9%

#4 1–1 4.9%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vestri2.6

Grotta2.1

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VESTRI · PPG 1.86

GROTTA · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vestri (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Grotta (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vestri face Grotta in Iceland - 1. Deild on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vestri a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Grotta 30%, so Vestri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Vestri and 2.1 for Grotta (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vestri are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.86 for Grotta. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.4%.

Vestri vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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