Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Leiknir R. vs Fylkir

Leiknir R. vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 19:15

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fylkir

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.9%0-26.4%0-33.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.9%1-111.1%1-28.9%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-17.8%2-26.3%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.3%3-13.6%3-22.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 25.0% 4.00 +37.2%

Draw 23.2% 24.4% 4.10 -2.9%

Away win 42.6% 60.6% 1.65 -29.7%

Over 2.5 63.4% 69.0% 1.45 -8.1%

Over 3.5 39.5% 46.5% 2.15 -15.1%

BTTS 62.2% 69.0% 1.45 -9.8%

Home O1.5 44.3% 40.0% 2.50 +10.8%

Away O1.5 48.2% 67.6% 1.48 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.2%

A 43% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiknir R.1.4

Fylkir1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.38

FYLKIR · PPG 1.88

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leiknir R. (H) 34.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +37.2%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.9%

Fylkir (A) 42.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -29.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiknir R. face Fylkir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiknir R. a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Fylkir 43%, so Fylkir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Leiknir R. and 1.6 for Fylkir (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiknir R. are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.88 for Fylkir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.7%.

Leiknir R. vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 1. Deild Predictions