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Colegiales vs Temperley Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 17:00

Colegiales

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Temperley

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.2%0-118.2%0-25.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-110.3%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.2%2-12.9%2-20.8%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.0%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 38.5% 2.60 -26.2%

Draw 43.4% 39.2% 2.55 +10.7%

Away win 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Over 2.5 10.6% 28.6% 3.50 -62.9%

Over 3.5 2.8% — — —

BTTS 18.7% 40.0% 2.50 -53.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob18.7%

D 43% / xG 0.6-0.6 / U2.5 11% / NoBTTS 19%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 32.2%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 0–1 18.2%

#4 1–1✓ 10.3%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colegiales0.6

Temperley0.6

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 10.6% · O3.5 PROB 2.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COLEGIALES · PPG 2.33

TEMPERLEY · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=28.4%

Win probability 1X2

Colegiales (H) 28.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -26.2%

Draw 43.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +10.7%

Temperley (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colegiales face Temperley in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colegiales a 28% chance, the draw 43% and Temperley 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Colegiales and 0.6 for Temperley (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 11% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 19% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colegiales are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.20 for Temperley. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Colegiales vs Temperley Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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