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Falkirk vs ST Mirren Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Falkirk

PPG 1.37 · HOME

UPCOMING

ST Mirren

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.7%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-111.4%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.5%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 50.3% 1.99 +3.5%

Draw 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -7.8%

Away win 23.5% 28.6% 3.50 -10.7%

Over 2.5 53.4% 55.6% 1.80 -3.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 49.4% 52.4% 1.91 -5.7%

Away O1.5 29.6% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 1.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkirk1.7

ST Mirren1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKIRK · PPG 1.37

ST MIRREN · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Falkirk (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV +3.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.8%

ST Mirren (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkirk face ST Mirren in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkirk a 52% chance, the draw 25% and ST Mirren 24%, so Falkirk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Falkirk and 1.0 for ST Mirren (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkirk are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 0.98 for ST Mirren.

Falkirk vs ST Mirren Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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