Today / Scotland - Premiership / Celtic vs Dundee

Celtic vs Dundee Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 18:30

Celtic

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dundee

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.7%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.2%1-18.5%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.3%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-17.1%4+-23.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 84.0% 1.19 -26.5%

Draw 20.5% 15.6% 6.40 +18.7%

Away win 17.6% 7.4% 13.50 +82.6%

Over 2.5 61.8% 74.1% 1.35 -16.6%

Over 3.5 39.4% 54.1% 1.85 -27.1%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 60.1% 83.3% 1.20 -27.9%

Away O1.5 20.3% 22.2% 4.50 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 1.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 62% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celtic2.3

Dundee0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTIC · PPG 2.10

DUNDEE · PPG 0.90

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Celtic (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.19 · IMPLIED 84.0% EV -26.5%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +18.7%

Dundee (A) 17.6%

ODDS 13.50 · IMPLIED 7.4% EV +82.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celtic face Dundee in Scotland - Premiership on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celtic a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Dundee 18%, so Celtic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Celtic and 0.8 for Dundee (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celtic are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.90 for Dundee. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +56.1%.

Celtic vs Dundee Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Premiership Predictions