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Dundee vs Aberdeen Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Dundee

PPG 1.58 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Aberdeen

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.5%0-25.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.3%1-112.9%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.7%3-13.9%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 39.1% 2.56 +17.3%

Draw 27.2% 29.0% 3.45 -3.7%

Away win 27.0% 39.1% 2.56 -18.5%

Over 2.5 50.3% 54.6% 1.83 -8.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

BTTS 53.1% 60.6% 1.65 -12.4%

Home O1.5 37.4% 43.5% 2.30 -14.0%

Away O1.5 32.7% 43.5% 2.30 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -15.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundee1.4

Aberdeen1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDEE · PPG 1.58

ABERDEEN · PPG 1.01

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dundee (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +17.3%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.7%

Aberdeen (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee face Aberdeen in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Aberdeen 27%, so Dundee are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dundee and 1.0 for Aberdeen (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.01 for Aberdeen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Dundee vs Aberdeen Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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