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Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:30

Aberdeen

PPG 1.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heart Of Midlothian

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-110.0%0-26.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.9%1-112.7%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-18.1%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.7%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 34.7% 2.88 +11.2%

Draw 26.8% 27.8% 3.60 -2.1%

Away win 34.6% 44.4% 2.25 -22.1%

Over 2.5 51.9% 58.8% 1.70 -11.8%

Over 3.5 29.4% 35.7% 2.80 -10.6%

BTTS 55.4% 62.5% 1.60 -11.4%

Home O1.5 36.0% 42.0% 2.38 -14.3%

Away O1.5 37.0% 51.3% 1.95 -27.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 1.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

A 35% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aberdeen1.3

Heart Of Midlothian1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ABERDEEN · PPG 1.42

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aberdeen (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +11.2%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.1%

Heart Of Midlothian (A) 34.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aberdeen face Heart Of Midlothian in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aberdeen a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Heart Of Midlothian 35%, so Aberdeen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aberdeen and 1.3 for Heart Of Midlothian (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aberdeen are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.58 for Heart Of Midlothian. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%.

Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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