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Hibernian vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Regular Season - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:30

Hibernian

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Motherwell

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.9%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-112.1%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.3%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.8%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 45.0% 2.22 +8.8%

Draw 24.7% 29.0% 3.45 -8.9%

Away win 26.3% 32.8% 3.05 -11.9%

Over 2.5 53.4% 55.6% 1.80 -3.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Away O1.5 36.5% 40.0% 2.50 -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 1.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 7.2%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hibernian1.5

Motherwell1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HIBERNIAN · PPG 1.55

MOTHERWELL · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hibernian (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +8.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.9%

Motherwell (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hibernian face Motherwell in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hibernian a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Motherwell 26%, so Hibernian are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hibernian and 1.1 for Motherwell (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hibernian are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.38 for Motherwell.

Hibernian vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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