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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 12:00

Sichuan Jiuniu

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chongqing Tongliang Long

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.8%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.6%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.0%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.0%3-14.3%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Draw 24.8% 29.9% 3.35 -10.2%

Away win 26.2% 31.7% 3.15 -10.5%

Over 2.5 53.4% 52.6% 1.90 +1.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 30.8% 3.25 +4.7%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Away O1.5 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sichuan Jiuniu1.4

Chongqing Tongliang Long1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SICHUAN JIUNIU · PPG 1.60

CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sichuan Jiuniu (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.2%

Chongqing Tongliang Long (A) 26.2%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sichuan Jiuniu face Chongqing Tongliang Long in China - Super League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 26%, so Sichuan Jiuniu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.1 for Chongqing Tongliang Long (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.20 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.7%.

Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions