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Eibar vs Huesca Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:30

Eibar

PPG 2.22 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Huesca

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-14.9%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.4%1-19.2%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-15.4%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-13.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 64.5% 1.55 +7.0%

Draw 20.7% 27.4% 3.65 -24.4%

Away win 10.3% 15.2% 6.60 -32.0%

Over 2.5 44.0% 47.6% 2.10 -7.6%

Over 3.5 22.9% 26.3% 3.80 -13.0%

BTTS 36.4% 48.8% 2.05 -25.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob36.4%

H 69% / xG 1.9-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 3–0 9.6%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eibar1.9

Huesca0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EIBAR · PPG 2.22

HUESCA · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.22), Away POOR (0.47) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Eibar (H) 69.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +7.0%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -24.4%

Huesca (A) 10.3%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eibar face Huesca in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eibar a 69% chance, the draw 21% and Huesca 10%, so Eibar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Eibar and 0.6 for Huesca (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eibar are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.47 for Huesca. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Eibar vs Huesca Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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