Today / Spain - Segunda División / Albacete vs Granada

Albacete vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:30

Albacete

PPG 1.29 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Granada

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.8%0-25.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.4%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-18.8%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 42.4% 2.36 +0.3%

Draw 26.2% 33.8% 2.96 -22.4%

Away win 31.3% 30.8% 3.25 +1.7%

Over 2.5 48.1% 47.6% 2.10 +1.0%

Over 3.5 26.4% 26.7% 3.75 -1.0%

BTTS 52.5% 56.5% 1.77 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.5%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albacete1.4

Granada1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBACETE · PPG 1.29

GRANADA · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Albacete (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +0.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -22.4%

Granada (A) 31.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albacete face Granada in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albacete a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Granada 31%, so Albacete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Albacete and 1.2 for Granada (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albacete are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.12 for Granada. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Albacete vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions