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Albacete vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:30

Albacete

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Granada

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.8%0-25.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.4%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-18.8%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 42.4% 2.36 +0.3%

Draw 26.2% 33.8% 2.96 -22.4%

Away win 31.3% 30.8% 3.25 +1.7%

Over 2.5 48.1% 47.6% 2.10 +1.0%

Over 3.5 26.4% 26.7% 3.75 -1.0%

BTTS 52.5% 56.5% 1.77 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.5%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albacete1.4

Granada1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBACETE · PPG 1.29

GRANADA · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Albacete (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +0.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -22.4%

Granada (A) 31.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albacete face Granada in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albacete a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Granada 31%, so Albacete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Albacete and 1.2 for Granada (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albacete are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.12 for Granada. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Albacete vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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