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Broadbeach United vs Logan Lightning Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 10:30

Broadbeach United

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Logan Lightning

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.4%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.4%1-16.5%1-23.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.9%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.1%3-18.2%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-110.9%4+-25.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 71.4% 1.40 -9.4%

Draw 16.8% 21.1% 4.75 -12.1%

Away win 18.5% 17.9% 5.60 +2.2%

Over 2.5 67.0% 70.4% 1.42 -4.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

BTTS 62.1% 64.5% 1.55 -3.7%

Home O1.5 64.0% 74.1% 1.35 -13.6%

Away O1.5 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 18.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.1%

H 65% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 2–0 8.9%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Broadbeach United2.8

Logan Lightning1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BROADBEACH UNITED · PPG 2.56

LOGAN LIGHTNING · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.75 for Home, form 2.56 vs 1.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Broadbeach United (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -9.4%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -12.1%

Logan Lightning (A) 18.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Broadbeach United face Logan Lightning in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Broadbeach United a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Logan Lightning 19%, so Broadbeach United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Broadbeach United and 1.0 for Logan Lightning (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Broadbeach United are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.11 for Logan Lightning. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.2%.

Broadbeach United vs Logan Lightning Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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