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Redlands United vs Caboolture Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 08:00

Redlands United

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Caboolture

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.2%0-23.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.8%1-18.3%1-27.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.1%3-15.4%3-24.7%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.2%4+-23.7%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 45.5% 2.20 -0.3%

Draw 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -9.4%

Away win 32.8% 38.5% 2.60 -14.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 74.1% 1.35 -9.6%

Over 3.5 44.8% 54.1% 1.85 -17.1%

BTTS 63.5% 76.9% 1.30 -17.4%

Home O1.5 53.6% 61.7% 1.62 -13.2%

Away O1.5 48.0% 57.8% 1.73 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 18.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Redlands United2.0

Caboolture1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REDLANDS UNITED · PPG 1.33

CABOOLTURE · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Redlands United (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.4%

Caboolture (A) 32.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Redlands United face Caboolture in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Redlands United a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Caboolture 33%, so Redlands United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Redlands United and 1.8 for Caboolture (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Redlands United are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.78 for Caboolture.

Redlands United vs Caboolture Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions