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Sabadell vs Hercules Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:15

Sabadell

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hercules

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a clear edge.

+30.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-12.9%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.4%1-16.5%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.5%2-17.4%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.2%3-15.6%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-15.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.6% 61.0% 1.64 +30.5%

Draw 15.0% 30.3% 3.30 -50.5%

Away win 5.4% 18.5% 5.40 -70.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 45.5% 2.20 +10.9%

Over 3.5 28.4% 23.8% 4.20 +19.3%

BTTS 30.9% 48.8% 2.05 -36.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob30.9%

H 80% / xG 2.3-0.4 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.5%

#2 1–0✓ 15.4%

#3 3–0 13.2%

#4 4–0 7.5%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sabadell2.3

Hercules0.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SABADELL · PPG 2.00

HERCULES · PPG 0.69

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.69) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sabadell (H) 79.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +30.5%

Draw 15.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -50.5%

Hercules (A) 5.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -70.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sabadell face Hercules in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sabadell a 80% chance, the draw 15% and Hercules 5%, so Sabadell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sabadell and 0.4 for Hercules (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sabadell are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.69 for Hercules. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Sabadell vs Hercules Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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