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Marconi Stallions vs St George City FA Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 05:00

Marconi Stallions

PPG 2.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

St George City FA

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-13.3%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.4%1-17.3%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.1%2-18.1%2-22.1%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.0%3-16.1%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-15.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.1% 75.2% 1.33 -6.8%

Draw 20.5% 23.1% 4.33 -6.7%

Away win 9.3% 11.1% 9.00 -9.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 58.8% 1.70 -9.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 37.0% 2.70 -13.1%

BTTS 48.7% 51.3% 1.95 -5.0%

Home O1.5 60.1% 69.4% 1.44 -13.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.7%

H 70% / xG 2.2-0.5 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.1%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 3–0 12.0%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi Stallions2.2

St George City FA0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI STALLIONS · PPG 2.42

ST GEORGE CITY FA · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.73 for Home, form 2.42 vs 0.64 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Marconi Stallions (H) 70.1%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -6.8%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -6.7%

St George City FA (A) 9.3%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi Stallions face St George City FA in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi Stallions a 70% chance, the draw 21% and St George City FA 9%, so Marconi Stallions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Marconi Stallions and 0.5 for St George City FA (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi Stallions are averaging 2.42 points per game versus 0.64 for St George City FA. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +7.9%.

Marconi Stallions vs St George City FA Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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