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Boise vs Corpus Christi Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 01:30

Boise

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Corpus Christi

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.6%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.6%1-19.4%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-16.7%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-15.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 62.5% 1.60 -8.0%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.5%

Away win 20.5% 21.1% 4.75 -1.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 58.8% 1.70 -9.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 37.0% 2.70 -13.1%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 60.1% 61.7% 1.62 -2.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 30.8% 3.25 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 24.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boise2.1

Corpus Christi0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BOISE · PPG 1.90

CORPUS CHRISTI · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Boise (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -8.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.5%

Corpus Christi (A) 20.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boise face Corpus Christi in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boise a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Corpus Christi 21%, so Boise are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Boise and 0.8 for Corpus Christi (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boise are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.44 for Corpus Christi.

Boise vs Corpus Christi Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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