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Eldense vs Cartagena Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:15

Eldense

PPG 2.44 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cartagena

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+23.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-14.6%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.9%1-18.6%1-22.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.6%2-18.0%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.3%3-15.0%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-13.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.8% 57.1% 1.75 +23.9%

Draw 20.4% 30.8% 3.25 -33.7%

Away win 8.8% 21.7% 4.60 -59.5%

Over 2.5 41.5% 40.8% 2.45 +1.7%

Over 3.5 20.9% 21.1% 4.75 -0.7%

BTTS 32.3% 47.6% 2.10 -32.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob32.3%

H 71% / xG 1.9-0.5 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.9%

#2 2–0 16.6%

#3 3–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 1–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eldense1.9

Cartagena0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ELDENSE · PPG 2.44

CARTAGENA · PPG 1.13

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.44), Away AVERAGE (1.13) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Eldense (H) 70.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +23.9%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -33.7%

Cartagena (A) 8.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -59.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eldense face Cartagena in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eldense a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Cartagena 9%, so Eldense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Eldense and 0.5 for Cartagena (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eldense are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.13 for Cartagena. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Eldense vs Cartagena Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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