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Algeciras vs Tarazona Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:15

Algeciras

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tarazona

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+32.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-17.2%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-110.6%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-17.8%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-13.8%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.1% 45.5% 2.20 +32.2%

Draw 26.3% 34.7% 2.88 -24.3%

Away win 13.6% 29.4% 3.40 -53.8%

Over 2.5 32.6% 37.7% 2.65 -13.6%

Over 3.5 14.5% — — —

BTTS 32.2% 46.5% 2.15 -30.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob32.2%

H 60% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.7%

#2 2–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Algeciras1.5

Tarazona0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.6% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALGECIRAS · PPG 2.00

TARAZONA · PPG 0.81

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=60.1%

Win probability 1X2

Algeciras (H) 60.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +32.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -24.3%

Tarazona (A) 13.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -53.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Algeciras face Tarazona in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Algeciras a 60% chance, the draw 26% and Tarazona 14%, so Algeciras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Algeciras and 0.5 for Tarazona (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Algeciras are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.81 for Tarazona. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Algeciras vs Tarazona Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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