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Guadalajara vs Pontevedra Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:15

Guadalajara

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

Pontevedra

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-115.0%0-28.4%0-33.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.9%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.3%2-16.0%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% — — —

Draw 30.4% — — —

Away win 40.9% — — —

Over 2.5 32.9% — — —

Over 3.5 14.6% — — —

BTTS 39.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob39.9%

A 41% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 13.3%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guadalajara0.9

Pontevedra1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUADALAJARA · PPG 1.38

PONTEVEDRA · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Guadalajara (H) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pontevedra (A) 40.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalajara face Pontevedra in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalajara a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Pontevedra 41%, so Pontevedra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Guadalajara and 1.1 for Pontevedra (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalajara are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.38 for Pontevedra. This match finished 1-4.

Guadalajara vs Pontevedra Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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