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Rhode Island vs Colorado Springs Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:30

Rhode Island

PPG 1.62 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Colorado Springs

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.4%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.3%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-16.3%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.7%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 51.3% 1.95 +3.9%

Draw 23.6% 29.4% 3.40 -11.9%

Away win 23.1% 29.9% 3.35 -13.6%

Over 2.5 58.7% 55.6% 1.80 +5.7%

Over 3.5 36.2% 33.3% 3.00 +8.6%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 55.4% 51.8% 1.93 +6.9%

Away O1.5 35.4% 36.4% 2.75 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rhode Island1.9

Colorado Springs1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.62

COLORADO SPRINGS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rhode Island (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.9%

Colorado Springs (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rhode Island face Colorado Springs in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rhode Island a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Colorado Springs 23%, so Rhode Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Rhode Island and 1.1 for Colorado Springs (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rhode Island are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.00 for Colorado Springs. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Rhode Island vs Colorado Springs Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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