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New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:30

New England Revolution

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Houston Dynamo

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+34.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.0%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.0%1-18.9%1-24.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.3%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-16.7%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 41.7% 2.40 +35.6%

Draw 22.3% 28.2% 3.55 -12.5%

Away win 21.1% 37.0% 2.70 -25.8%

Over 2.5 60.9% 55.6% 1.80 +9.6%

Over 3.5 38.0% 33.3% 3.00 +14.0%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 62.4% 46.5% 2.15 +34.2%

Away O1.5 30.2% 42.6% 2.35 -29.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England Revolution2.2

Houston Dynamo1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 2.50

HOUSTON DYNAMO · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New England Revolution (H) 56.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +35.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.5%

Houston Dynamo (A) 21.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

New England Revolution face Houston Dynamo in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England Revolution a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Houston Dynamo 21%, so New England Revolution are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for New England Revolution and 1.0 for Houston Dynamo (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England Revolution are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Houston Dynamo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +55.9%. This match finished 0-2.

New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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