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New York City II vs Orlando City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 15:00

New York City II

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orlando City II

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.3%0-22.9%0-31.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.2%1-17.3%1-26.4%1-33.7%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.4%3-16.0%3-25.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.6%4+-24.9%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 50.0% 2.00 -3.8%

Draw 22.6% 28.6% 3.50 -12.5%

Away win 29.3% 34.5% 2.90 -9.0%

Over 2.5 67.4% 69.4% 1.44 -2.9%

Over 3.5 47.2% 50.5% 1.98 -6.5%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 63.0% 62.9% 1.59 +0.2%

Away O1.5 47.7% 49.8% 2.01 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.3%

H 48% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York City II2.2

Orlando City II1.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK CITY II · PPG 1.67

ORLANDO CITY II · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

New York City II (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -3.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.5%

Orlando City II (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York City II face Orlando City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City II a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Orlando City II 29%, so New York City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for New York City II and 1.7 for Orlando City II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City II are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Orlando City II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.5%.

New York City II vs Orlando City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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