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Connecticut FC vs New England II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:00

Connecticut FC

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

New England II

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.8%0-24.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.6%1-111.0%1-27.9%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.2%2-18.9%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.3%3-14.8%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.8%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 54.1% 1.85 -19.3%

Draw 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -14.1%

Away win 33.2% 29.4% 3.40 +12.9%

Over 2.5 63.4% 66.7% 1.50 -4.9%

Over 3.5 39.5% 45.2% 2.21 -12.7%

BTTS 62.9% 69.4% 1.44 -9.4%

Home O1.5 47.5% 61.7% 1.62 -23.1%

Away O1.5 43.7% 42.6% 2.35 +2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.9%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2✓ 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Connecticut FC1.6

New England II1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CONNECTICUT FC · PPG 1.73

NEW ENGLAND II · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Connecticut FC (H) 43.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -19.3%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.1%

New England II (A) 33.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Connecticut FC face New England II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Connecticut FC a 44% chance, the draw 23% and New England II 33%, so Connecticut FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Connecticut FC and 1.4 for New England II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Connecticut FC are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.88 for New England II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Connecticut FC vs New England II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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