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Portland Timbers II vs Los Angeles FC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:00

Portland Timbers II

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Los Angeles FC II

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.1%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.3%1-110.9%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.9%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 50.0% 2.00 +6.2%

Draw 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Away win 23.0% 34.5% 2.90 -20.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 65.4% 1.53 -18.1%

Over 3.5 32.3% 42.9% 2.33 -24.7%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 49.2% 55.9% 1.79 -11.9%

Away O1.5 34.6% 43.7% 2.29 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Timbers II1.8

Los Angeles FC II1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND TIMBERS II · PPG 1.60

LOS ANGELES FC II · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portland Timbers II (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +6.2%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Los Angeles FC II (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Timbers II face Los Angeles FC II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Timbers II a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Los Angeles FC II 23%, so Portland Timbers II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Portland Timbers II and 1.1 for Los Angeles FC II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Timbers II are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.78 for Los Angeles FC II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Portland Timbers II vs Los Angeles FC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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