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Chicago Fire II vs Toronto II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 19:00

Chicago Fire II

PPG 2.22 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Toronto II

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.61 for Home, form 2.22 vs 0.73 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.5%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.3%1-16.7%1-23.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.4%2-19.0%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-18.1%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-110.3%4+-25.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% — — —

Draw 16.7% — — —

Away win 15.5% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 45.5% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 34.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 68% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 2–0 8.4%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 1–1 6.7%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago Fire II2.7

Toronto II1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO FIRE II · PPG 2.22

TORONTO II · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.61 for Home, form 2.22 vs 0.73 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chicago Fire II (H) 67.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Toronto II (A) 15.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago Fire II face Toronto II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago Fire II a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Toronto II 16%, so Chicago Fire II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Chicago Fire II and 1.1 for Toronto II (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago Fire II are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.73 for Toronto II. This match finished 2-4.

Chicago Fire II vs Toronto II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Next Pro Predictions