Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Philadelphia Union II vs FC Cincinnati II

Philadelphia Union II vs FC Cincinnati II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Philadelphia Union II

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

FC Cincinnati II

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.3%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.6%1-110.1%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.1%3-16.0%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 65.4% 1.53 -7.6%

Draw 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -8.7%

Away win 17.1% 20.0% 5.00 -8.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 71.4% 1.40 -25.1%

Over 3.5 32.3% 44.8% 2.23 -28.0%

BTTS 52.4% 65.4% 1.53 -19.8%

Home O1.5 55.4% 68.5% 1.46 -19.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 32.9% 3.04 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.4%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 2–1✓ 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia Union II1.9

FC Cincinnati II0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA UNION II · PPG 1.40

FC CINCINNATI II · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia Union II (H) 60.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -7.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.7%

FC Cincinnati II (A) 17.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia Union II face FC Cincinnati II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia Union II a 60% chance, the draw 23% and FC Cincinnati II 17%, so Philadelphia Union II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Philadelphia Union II and 0.7 for FC Cincinnati II (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia Union II are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.00 for FC Cincinnati II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Philadelphia Union II vs FC Cincinnati II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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