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Minnesota United II vs The Town Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:00

Minnesota United II

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

The Town

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.2%0-25.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.3%1-111.0%1-28.4%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.4%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.8%3-14.3%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 42.0% 2.38 +4.0%

Draw 23.0% 27.8% 3.60 -10.3%

Away win 33.3% 42.0% 2.38 -20.8%

Over 2.5 63.4% 69.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Over 3.5 39.5% 51.3% 1.95 -23.0%

BTTS 62.9% 73.5% 1.36 -14.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 55.2% 1.81 -17.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.6% 1.83 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.9%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Minnesota United II1.5

The Town1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MINNESOTA UNITED II · PPG 1.50

THE TOWN · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Minnesota United II (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +4.0%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.3%

The Town (A) 33.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Minnesota United II face The Town in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Minnesota United II a 44% chance, the draw 23% and The Town 33%, so Minnesota United II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Minnesota United II and 1.5 for The Town (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Minnesota United II are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for The Town.

Minnesota United II vs The Town Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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