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Austin II vs Sporting KC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 00:30

Austin II logo
Austin II
PPG 2.00 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5
Sporting KC II logo
Sporting KC II
PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9% — a clear edge.

+13.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.2%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.6%1-14.0%1-21.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.0%2-16.9%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-17.9%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-018.9%4+-116.4%4+-27.1%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 75.3% 67.6% 1.48 +11.4%
Draw 15.6% 24.4% 4.10 -21.6%
Away win 9.1% 19.2% 5.20 -31.6%
Over 2.5 71.6% 66.7% 1.50 +7.4%
Over 3.5 52.2% 47.6% 2.10 +9.6%
BTTS 60.8% 63.7% 1.57 -4.5%
Home O1.5 80.3% 70.9% 1.41 +13.2%
Away O1.5 22.5% 33.6% 2.98 -19.8%

League track record

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%
O2.5 77%
BTTS 51%
Score Hit 31%
ROI 28.3%
Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob60.8%

H 75% / xG 3.4-0.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.1%
#2 2–0 8.0%
#3 3–1 7.9%
#4 4–0 7.9%
#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austin II3.4
Sporting KC II0.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTIN II · PPG 2.00

SPORTING KC II · PPG 0.89

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98%
STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.57 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.89 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Austin II (H) 75.3%
ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +11.4%
Draw 15.6%
ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -21.6%
Sporting KC II (A) 9.1%
ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austin II face Sporting KC II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austin II a 75% chance, the draw 16% and Sporting KC II 9%, so Austin II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Austin II and 0.9 for Sporting KC II (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austin II are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Sporting KC II. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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