Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance

North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:45

North Texas

PPG 1.71 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tacoma Defiance

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.5%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.3%1-110.4%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.6%3-16.3%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.6%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 46.5% 2.15 +14.0%

Draw 22.7% 27.0% 3.70 -9.6%

Away win 24.3% 38.2% 2.62 -21.8%

Over 2.5 61.3% 65.4% 1.53 -6.2%

Over 3.5 38.2% 47.6% 2.10 -19.8%

BTTS 61.2% 69.4% 1.44 -11.9%

Home O1.5 55.4% 57.1% 1.75 -3.0%

Away O1.5 35.4% 49.0% 2.04 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.2%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Texas1.9

Tacoma Defiance1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH TEXAS · PPG 1.71

TACOMA DEFIANCE · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

North Texas (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +14.0%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.6%

Tacoma Defiance (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Texas face Tacoma Defiance in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Texas a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Tacoma Defiance 24%, so North Texas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for North Texas and 1.1 for Tacoma Defiance (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Texas are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.22 for Tacoma Defiance. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 3-1.

North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Next Pro Predictions