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Tigre vs River Plate Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:00

Tigre

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

River Plate

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-113.1%0-25.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.8%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.1%2-16.8%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 27.8% 3.60 +31.0%

Draw 33.4% 34.7% 2.88 -3.8%

Away win 30.2% 44.4% 2.25 -32.0%

Over 2.5 36.3% 34.5% 2.90 +5.3%

Over 3.5 18.1% 16.7% 6.00 +5.2%

BTTS 45.5% 44.4% 2.25 +2.4%

Home O1.5 32.1% 23.8% 4.20 +34.8%

Away O1.5 20.4% 35.1% 2.85 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.5%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0✓ 15.8%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigre1.0

River Plate0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRE · PPG 1.56

RIVER PLATE · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tigre (H) 36.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +31.0%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -3.8%

River Plate (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigre face River Plate in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigre a 36% chance, the draw 33% and River Plate 30%, so Tigre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tigre and 0.8 for River Plate (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigre are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.56 for River Plate. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +34.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Tigre vs River Plate Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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