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Atletico DE Rafaela vs Chacarita Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Atletico DE Rafaela

PPG 2.09 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Chacarita Juniors

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-19.0%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.7%1-111.0%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-16.7%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.4%3-12.7%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 46.5% 2.15 +6.2%

Draw 29.8% 37.0% 2.70 -11.7%

Away win 20.8% 26.7% 3.75 -13.2%

Over 2.5 34.8% 33.3% 3.00 +4.4%

Over 3.5 18.1% 14.3% 7.00 +16.0%

BTTS 45.5% 43.5% 2.30 +4.7%

Home O1.5 34.0% 35.7% 2.80 -4.8%

Away O1.5 17.4% 22.2% 4.50 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.5%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 21.7%

#2 0–0 17.7%

#3 2–0 13.3%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico DE Rafaela1.2

Chacarita Juniors0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO DE RAFAELA · PPG 2.09

CHACARITA JUNIORS · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico DE Rafaela (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +6.2%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -11.7%

Chacarita Juniors (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico DE Rafaela face Chacarita Juniors in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico DE Rafaela a 49% chance, the draw 30% and Chacarita Juniors 21%, so Atletico DE Rafaela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.5 for Chacarita Juniors (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico DE Rafaela are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.55 for Chacarita Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Chacarita Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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