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S. Cristal vs Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 11 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:00

S. Cristal

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cajamarca

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+29.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.1%0-21.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.3%1-15.9%1-24.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.3%2-25.8%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.5%3-17.7%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-110.5%4+-27.3%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.5% 72.5% 1.38 -8.2%

Draw 16.5% 22.7% 4.40 -27.4%

Away win 17.1% 12.0% 8.30 +41.9%

Over 2.5 78.7% 60.6% 1.65 +29.9%

Over 3.5 60.1% 38.5% 2.60 +56.3%

BTTS 70.6% 54.6% 1.83 +29.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob70.6%

H 66% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 2–0 5.9%

#5 2–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Cristal2.8

Cajamarca1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.7% · O3.5 PROB 60.1%

Form & verdict PPG

S. CRISTAL · PPG 1.40

CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

S. Cristal (H) 66.5%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -8.2%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -27.4%

Cajamarca (A) 17.1%

ODDS 8.30 · IMPLIED 12.0% EV +41.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Cristal face Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Cristal a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Cajamarca 17%, so S. Cristal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for S. Cristal and 1.4 for Cajamarca (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Cristal are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +56.3%. This match finished 3-2.

S. Cristal vs Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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