Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Madryn

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.45 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Deportivo Madryn

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-111.1%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.6%1-113.2%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-17.8%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 54.1% 1.85 -14.3%

Draw 27.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Away win 26.0% 21.7% 4.60 +11.8%

Over 2.5 44.0% 35.1% 2.85 +25.4%

Over 3.5 22.0% 15.4% 6.50 +25.8%

BTTS 48.4% 42.6% 2.35 +13.7%

Home O1.5 32.4% 40.8% 2.45 -20.6%

Away O1.5 20.4% 20.0% 5.00 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1✓ 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Estudiantes1.2

Deportivo Madryn0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.45

DEPORTIVO MADRYN · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CA Estudiantes (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.3%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Deportivo Madryn (A) 26.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Estudiantes face Deportivo Madryn in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Estudiantes a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Madryn 26%, so CA Estudiantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for CA Estudiantes and 0.8 for Deportivo Madryn (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Estudiantes are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.27 for Deportivo Madryn. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +35.8%. This match finished 0-1.

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions