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Almirante Brown vs Ciudad de Bolívar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Almirante Brown

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Ciudad de Bolívar

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.2%0-112.6%0-23.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.5%1-110.8%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.6%2-14.6%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.8%3-11.3%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 52.4% 1.91 -16.5%

Draw 34.0% 37.7% 2.65 -9.9%

Away win 22.3% 20.0% 5.00 +6.9%

Over 2.5 34.8% 28.6% 3.50 +21.8%

Over 3.5 14.4% 11.1% 9.00 +17.8%

BTTS 44.9% 37.0% 2.70 +21.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 36.4% 2.75 -11.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 16.7% 6.00 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.9%

H 44% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.2%

#2 1–0 22.5%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0✓ 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almirante Brown0.9

Ciudad de Bolívar0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 2.00

CIUDAD DE BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 1.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Almirante Brown (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -16.5%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -9.9%

Ciudad de Bolívar (A) 22.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almirante Brown face Ciudad de Bolívar in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almirante Brown a 44% chance, the draw 34% and Ciudad de Bolívar 22%, so Almirante Brown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Almirante Brown and 0.5 for Ciudad de Bolívar (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almirante Brown are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.82 for Ciudad de Bolívar. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Almirante Brown vs Ciudad de Bolívar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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