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Agropecuario vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Agropecuario

PPG 1.45 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Club Atlético Güemes

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-15.8%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.2%1-110.6%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.9%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 55.6% 1.80 +1.3%

Draw 22.7% 32.3% 3.10 -17.8%

Away win 21.0% 22.7% 4.40 -4.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 40.8% 2.45 +30.8%

Over 3.5 31.4% 22.2% 4.50 +41.3%

BTTS 52.4% 47.6% 2.10 +10.0%

Home O1.5 52.6% 46.5% 2.15 +13.1%

Away O1.5 20.4% 23.1% 4.33 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.4%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Agropecuario1.8

Club Atlético Güemes0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 1.45

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Agropecuario (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +1.3%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.8%

Club Atlético Güemes (A) 21.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Agropecuario face Club Atlético Güemes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agropecuario a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Club Atlético Güemes 21%, so Agropecuario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Agropecuario and 0.8 for Club Atlético Güemes (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agropecuario are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.50 for Club Atlético Güemes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Agropecuario vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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