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Deportivo Riestra vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 17:45

Deportivo Riestra

PPG 1.10 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Estudiantes L.P.

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.4%0-121.8%0-27.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.7%1-19.9%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-03.3%2-12.2%2-20.8%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.5%3-10.3%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 35.1% 2.85 -10.8%

Draw 38.5% 36.8% 2.72 +4.7%

Away win 32.7% 35.1% 2.85 -6.8%

Over 2.5 28.8% 27.0% 3.70 +3.9%

Over 3.5 12.2% 11.8% 8.50 +2.2%

BTTS 33.0% 37.7% 2.65 -12.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 25.0% 4.00 +28.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 25.0% 4.00 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob33.0%

D 38% / xG 0.5-0.7 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 32.4%

#2 0–1 21.8%

#3 1–0 14.7%

#4 1–1 9.9%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Riestra0.5

Estudiantes L.P.0.7

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA · PPG 1.10

ESTUDIANTES L.P. · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.22, combined xG 1.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Riestra (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -10.8%

Draw 38.5%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +4.7%

Estudiantes L.P. (A) 32.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Riestra face Estudiantes L.P. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Riestra a 29% chance, the draw 39% and Estudiantes L.P. 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Deportivo Riestra and 0.7 for Estudiantes L.P. (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Riestra are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.67 for Estudiantes L.P.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +28.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Deportivo Riestra vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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