Today / Italy - Serie A / Pisa vs Genoa

Pisa vs Genoa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:00

Pisa

PPG 0.63 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Genoa

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-113.7%0-29.7%0-34.6%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.1%2-15.8%2-24.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.3%3-11.8%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 31.7% 3.15 -22.8%

Draw 27.1% 32.3% 3.10 -16.0%

Away win 48.4% 42.6% 2.35 +13.7%

Over 2.5 41.2% 44.4% 2.25 -7.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 23.8% 4.20 -13.1%

BTTS 45.5% 52.4% 1.91 -13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob45.5%

A 48% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.7%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pisa0.9

Genoa1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PISA · PPG 0.63

GENOA · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.63) vs Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Pisa (H) 24.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -22.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.0%

Genoa (A) 48.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pisa face Genoa in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pisa a 25% chance, the draw 27% and Genoa 48%, so Genoa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Pisa and 1.4 for Genoa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pisa are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.93 for Genoa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Pisa vs Genoa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions