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Aluminij vs Bravo Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:30

Aluminij

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bravo

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+33.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-14.1%0-24.8%0-33.7%0-4+3.8%1 1-03.0%1-17.0%1-28.2%1-36.4%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.5%2-16.0%2-27.0%2-35.4%2-4+5.5%3 3-01.4%3-13.4%3-24.0%3-33.1%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.1%4+-22.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 28.6% 3.50 -1.3%

Draw 19.7% 28.6% 3.50 -31.1%

Away win 52.1% 51.5% 1.94 +1.1%

Over 2.5 76.9% 57.8% 1.73 +33.0%

Over 3.5 57.6% 36.4% 2.75 +58.4%

BTTS 74.0% 63.7% 1.57 +16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob74.0%

A 52% / xG 1.7-2.3 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.2%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aluminij1.7

Bravo2.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.20

BRAVO · PPG 1.60

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Aluminij (H) 28.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.3%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -31.1%

Bravo (A) 52.1%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aluminij face Bravo in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aluminij a 28% chance, the draw 20% and Bravo 52%, so Bravo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Aluminij and 2.3 for Bravo (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aluminij are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.60 for Bravo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +58.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Aluminij vs Bravo Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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