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Padova vs Reggiana Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:15

Padova

PPG 1.12 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Reggiana

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.4%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.8%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.9%3-15.0%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 50.0% 2.00 +10.0%

Draw 25.0% 30.3% 3.30 -17.5%

Away win 20.0% 27.0% 3.70 -26.0%

Over 2.5 44.3% 47.6% 2.10 -7.0%

Over 3.5 23.1% 26.3% 3.80 -12.2%

BTTS 45.7% 54.6% 1.83 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.7%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 13.8%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Padova1.6

Reggiana0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PADOVA · PPG 1.12

REGGIANA · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.12) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Padova (H) 55.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +10.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.5%

Reggiana (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Padova face Reggiana in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Padova a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Reggiana 20%, so Padova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Padova and 0.9 for Reggiana (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Padova are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.71 for Reggiana. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Padova vs Reggiana Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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