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Eidsvold vs Kjelsås Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Eidsvold

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kjelsås

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.2%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.4%1-18.8%1-26.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.8%3-16.6%3-24.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.7%4+-24.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 48.8% 2.05 +3.3%

Draw 22.5% 27.4% 3.65 -10.7%

Away win 27.1% 33.9% 2.95 -12.0%

Over 2.5 65.7% 69.4% 1.44 -5.4%

Over 3.5 44.0% 48.8% 2.05 -9.8%

BTTS 64.3% 73.5% 1.36 -12.6%

Home O1.5 61.4% 60.6% 1.65 +1.3%

Away O1.5 43.7% 50.0% 2.00 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.3%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eidsvold2.1

Kjelsås1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EIDSVOLD · PPG 2.29

KJELSÅS · PPG 2.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Eidsvold (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +3.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.7%

Kjelsås (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eidsvold face Kjelsås in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eidsvold a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Kjelsås 27%, so Eidsvold are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Eidsvold and 1.4 for Kjelsås (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eidsvold are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 2.67 for Kjelsås. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Eidsvold vs Kjelsås Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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