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Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 10:30

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-113.6%0-26.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.4%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.6%2-16.7%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 47.6% 2.10 -21.0%

Draw 31.9% 30.8% 3.25 +3.7%

Away win 30.5% 28.6% 3.50 +6.8%

Over 2.5 37.3% 46.5% 2.15 -19.8%

Over 3.5 20.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.8%

BTTS 48.7% 54.1% 1.85 -9.9%

Home O1.5 32.6% 44.4% 2.25 -26.7%

Away O1.5 30.4% 30.3% 3.30 +0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -72.1%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 0–1 13.6%

#4 1–0 13.4%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pohang Steelers1.0

Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.22

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pohang Steelers (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -21.0%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +3.7%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A) 30.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pohang Steelers face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pohang Steelers a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31%, so Pohang Steelers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Pohang Steelers and 1.0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.10 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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